Thailand Export Outlook Q4 2025: What Businesses Should Know

1. Strong Start, But Signals of Slowdown Ahead

In July 2025, Thailand's exports surged 11% year-on-year, outperforming the 9.6% forecast, driven largely by accelerated shipments ahead of U.S. tariff hikes Reuters. However, this momentum is expected to taper off in Q4 as importers frontloaded orders before tariffs took full effect Reuters+1.

2. Export Growth Trimmed by Tariff Pressures

The Bank of Thailand warns that exports could contract by up to 4% in H2 2025 due to U.S. trade restrictions Reuters. Although early-year performance was strong—exports rose nearly 15% in the first half—forecasted growth for the full year has now been tempered to around 4%, with further softening expected into 2026 Reuters.

3. Economic Forecasts Reflect Slower Momentum

• Q2 GDP came in at 2.8%, slightly above expectations, but NESDC cautions that growth will slow in the latter half of the year Reuters.

• Full-year GDP growth is revised to a range of 1.8%–2.3% ReutersAInvest.

  
  

4. Front-loading Impact and Industry Vulnerabilities

Front-loading of export shipments masked H2 headwinds, but the real impact of tariffs, especially in key sectors like electronics and automotive, is now hitting home. Forecasts show merchandise exports could sharply contract in the second half botReuters. Regional forecasts, including from the OECD, underscore declining export contributions due to U.S.–Thailand trade pressures OECDeconomic-research.bnpparibas.com.

5. What This Means for Businesses like CLS

This mixed outlook presents both challenges and opportunities. Export demand is cooling, but businesses that can offer flexibility, market diversification, and strong customer service will stay ahead.

Key Takeaways for Q4 2025

Factor	Insights
Export Growth Trend	Cooling after early acceleration; full-year growth under pressure.
Tariff Impact	U.S. tariffs increasingly dampen export volumes.
Economic Growth	GDP slowing, with H2 forecasts below earlier projections.
Strategic Response	Emphasize adaptability, digital visibility, and diversified markets.

Positioning for the Future

At CLS, we’re doubling down on agility, transparency, and global experience to help businesses navigate this landscape:

• Digital-first logistics – Real-time tracking and precision planning offer resilience amid volatility.

• Diverse routing & partnerships – Navigating around tariff-ridden markets through alternative routes and carriers.

• Proactive compliance – Staying ahead of shifting regulations, ensuring smooth customs clearance.

  
  

In Summary

Thailand's export outlook for Q4 2025 is cooling—tariffs, global uncertainty, and front-loaded shipments are shaping a more cautious economic terrain. However, with smart strategy and agile service, logistics partners like CLS can help businesses stay agile and ship confidently through these changing times.